3:45PM-MLB: Baltimore OR San Francisco

The struggling Baltimore Orioles (18-47) will travel to play the San Francisco Giants (36-28).  As the Giants are heavily favored with their ace Lincecum pitching, we get a pick that is relatively unique.  We are being asked to choose between the Baltimore Orioles Winning/Losing by 1 or the Giants winning by 2 or more.  San Francisco will be looking to punish the weak while Baltimore will be fighting for some respect.

StreakFreaks

  • Giants: 25 of their 36 wins have been by 2 runs or more (64 total games)
  • Orioles: 37 of their 47 losses have been by 2 runs or more (65 total games)
  • Giants: 23-12 at home (17 wins have been by 2 or more)
  • Orioles: 7-26 away (18 losses have been by 2 or more)
  • Giants are 9-4 when Lincecum starts (6 wins have been by 2 or more)
  • Orioles are 3-10 when Guthrie starts (6 losses have been by 2 or more)
  • Giants are 4-3 at home when Lincecum starts (3 wins have been by 2 or more)
  • Orioles are 1-6 on the road when Guthrie starts (2 losses have been by 2 or more)
  • Giants are -265 favorites to win, -125 to win by 2 or more

Stig picks San Francisco will win by 2 or more * * * (3 out of 5 stars)

The majority of these statistics show that it is about a 50-50 prop of whether the Giants will win by 2 or more.  Giants win by 2 or more a little less than 50% of the time at home and when Lincecum pitches.  The Orioles lose by 2 or more runs on the road right under 50% as well. The difference in these stats is that the Orioles are worse than the average team and the Giants are better than the average team, which makes me lean towards taking the Giants.  On the other hand, your have Guthrie, who is the Orioles’ best pitcher and has given up more than 4 runs in only 1 start this year.  This matchup of the two aces will mean scoring is at a premium.  With this in mind, lowly Baltimore just beat San Francisco at home, 4-2, so I think San Francisco will be out to win the rubber match of this series.  With this motivation, I see them winning by multiple runs.  I still worry about picking this with a low scoring game, so be very careful.

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