7:10PM-MLB: Wainwright: Records K in 1st OR No K in 1st

The Seattle Mariners travel to play the St. Louis Cardinals in this interleague showdown between 2 teams with in opposite ends of the spectrum  of success, St. Louis has a 34-29 record while Seattle has a 24-39 record.  With it being a home game for St. Louis, and with Wainwright pitching against an unknown French, it is assumed that St. Louis is the favorites, which is why we get this Wainwright prop of whether he will throw a strikeout in the first inning or not.


  • Wainwright is 8-4 this year in 13 starts with 91 k’s in 94 innings pitched
  • At home, in 5 games, he is 5-0 with 36 k’s in 39 innings
  • Vs. Righties, he has 46 K’s in 53 1/3 innings
  • Vs. Lefties, he has 45 K’s in 40 2/3 innings
  • Wainwright in pitches 1-15 has 8 strikeouts in 12 innings pitched (in pitches 16-30 he has 8 K’s in 9 2/3 innings)
  • Mariners, as a team, struck 431 times in 2099 ABs (20.5%)
  • Mariners’ probable starting lineup is Ichiro, Figgins, Guiterrez, Lopez
    • Ichiro (L): .341 BA, 33K’s in 258 ABs (12.8%)
    • Figgins (S): .228 BA, 50K’s in 224 ABs (22.3%)
    • Guiterrez (R): .280 BA, 61K’s in 232 ABs (26.3%)
    • Lopez (R): .231 BA, 29 K’s in 251 ABs (11.6%)
    • Bradley (S):  .224 BA, 46 K’s in 152 ABs (30.2%)

Stig picks strikeout * * (2 out of 5 stars)

This pick is hard.  You have a pitcher who records a lot of strikeouts statistically against a team who strikes out a lot.  Problem is, even in this scenario, the odds show that a strikeout being recorded in a given inning is unlikely. 20 percent of Mariners outs have been strikeouts while 32 percent of Wainwright’s outs have been strikeouts.  Using a conditional analysis (where one takes the odds of Player 1 not striking out, multiplies it by the odds of Player 2, on and on), we get the odds of no strikeout happening RIGHT at 50% (49.9), this shows that it is a total and complete toss up.  I am going with strikeouts because of the stats of Wainwright in his first 30 pitches (16 K’s in 65 outs-24.6%).  Using conditional analysis in this, there is a 42% chance of no strikeout.  I wish I could find what Wainwright’s stats were in each first inning, but this is all I have so I am going to go with he will record a K.

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